PDF · Útgáfa 2022-RD-01 — desember 2022Hydrological response of Icelandic river basins to projected climate change during the 21st century. A case study
This study presents an analysis of the hydrological response of three Icelandic river catchments
to projected climate change in the 21st century. The catchments are located in the north and
southeast of the country and their current hydrological regimes are influenced by snow
seasonality. Daily streamflow series were simulated over the period 1981-2100 with the HYPE
hydrological model forced with an ensemble of regional climate projections from CORDEX,
under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Changes affecting near surface air temperature
and precipitation and their impact on mean and extreme streamflow characteristics were
analysed. There is a consensus that air temperature will rise in the future, leading to shorter
snow seasons and less snow storage. The projected changes in climatic conditions are expected
to impact the hydrological characteristics of the three studied catchments but the timing,
magnitude and direction of the response vary with the season and catchment.
